Armyworm forecasting and control
Impact

No formal impact assessment has been carried out on the community based armyworm forecasting initiatives. However, baseline data exists in terms of the frequency of armyworm infestations and areas of damage. The economic importance of the armyworm depends on the stage the crop is at when it is attacked and market prices. This has been mapped out by Imperial College, UK and models to measure benefit under different conditions have been constructed.

Whilst the community based forecasting has been established, the full impact of the work programme will only be felt by farmers when the SpexNPV control agent is produced and distributed to farmers.

The armyworm forecasting team has:

• developed registration requirements for semio-chemicals and procedures for introduction of straight chain lepidopteran pheromones
• marketed the straight chain Lepidoptera pheromone in Kenya and Tanzania, and explored interest from Malawi
• established a network of forecasters in 120 communities in Kenya (Coastal, Eastern and Rift Valley provinces) - the project team estimates that 80,080 people are directly benefitting from the armyworm forecasting tools in Kenya
• established a network of forecasters in 40 communities in Tanzania (in Kilosa, Kongwa and Mvomero districts) - the team estimates that 25,000 people are directly benefitting from the armyworm forecasting tools in Tanzania
• trained 112 Kenya and 40 Tanzania government staff in community based forecasting methods
• collaborated with Shujaaz to develop awareness of armyworm forecasting - September 2010 issue (Chapta 7)
• achieved sales of the first 20 traps and a network of distributors has been identified

The control team has:

• established the SpexNPV production facility in Tanzania

The production of Spex NPV required the purchase of land and a facility to be constructed. This has all gone as planned and the new facility has been set up and the commissioning of the equipment began in May 2011.

The establishment of the SpexNPV facility is the first commercial biological pesticide plant in Tanzania (only the third in sub-Saharan Africa outside South Africa).It provides the only source of environmentally-safe and affordable armyworm control in Africa.

The establishment of the SpexNPV facility has also become a platform for developing a new business in safe pest control products and active discussions are underway already to enlarge the range of products to be produced. These products will also support improved pest control both for poor farmers and export agribusinesses in Tanzania.

The biotech facilities in Tanzania are unique and well adapted for production of other biotechnology products urgently need by Tanzanian export agriculture sector such as plant tissue culture for bananas, pineapples and potatoes for which customers have been identified.

These developments will provide a small number of jobs directly in production of new pest control and biotechnology products. But they will have greater impact through strengthening the export sector of Tanzanian horticulture by providing inputs (bio-pesticides and tissue culture stocks) needed to strengthen export competitiveness and which Tanzania currently lacks. Additionally there will be a direct impact on food security at home.

The team has done some trial armyworm harvesting for the production of SpexNPV, but due to the low number of outbreaks in 2011 a full harvesting programme could not be undertaken as planned. Importantly, however, the harvesting techniques were validated in the trials and improved methods for mass harvesting developed.

The team have also been working closely with the appropriate policy makers in Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAOFS) in Tanzania to obtain their support and involvement in the use of SpexNPV both in conjunction with community based armyworm forecasting and its commercial sale.

Impact on policy

The team has spent a lot of time with policy makers on both the development of pheromone registration protocols in Kenya and getting the support of the governments of Kenya and Tanzania to scale-up this approach. The team have invested a lot of time in these relationships and although progress may been steady it has also been highly effective.

• Development of a Government of Kenya approved simple (no cost, fast) procedure for the registration of pheromones. This will facilitate the commercialisation of other pheromones for lepidopteran pests in Kenya.
• Development of a Government of Tanzania approved simple (low cost, fast) procedure for the registration of SpexNPV.

Draft inclusion of community based armyworm forecasting on the performance contract for the Permanent Secretary in the Kenya Ministry of Agriculture, which means that that getting community based armyworm forecasting adopted is a key objective for the PS. This has led to a suggestion that funds may be made available.

There has been a change in mindset within the Government of Kenya, which now recognises that community based forecasting has an important role to play in providing data on armyworm status to add to information to the national network of traps. This will enable more accurate forecasts to be made and control better pinpointed.

In Tanzania, the government has provided financial support for additional community based forecasting sites. The approach has also been integrated into district agricultural development plans (DADPs), thus ensuring longer term sustainability. The Government of Tanzania has additionally committed to using SpexNPV in its armyworm control programmes to show farmers that this approach is effective.

The SpexNPV team worked with the Plant Health Services of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania through a series of meetings, briefings, explanatory leaflets and presentations at an armyworm workshop and farming training workshop to try to secure a favourable policy framework for SpexNPV registration and adoption. The PHS staff visited the SpexNPV production facility in Tanzania. The armyworm workshop in June 2011 in Arusha confirmed their very strong support for SpexNPV adoption and commercial production, both for local use and export to other African countries.

A presentation on SpexNPV to National Plant Protection Advisory committee (responsible for advising government of Tanzania on plant protection matters) resulted in a recommendation to the government to adopt SpexNPV and support registration of SpexNPV.

Unexpected impact:

• Sokoine University of Agriculture staff visited the SpexNPV facility and want to assign undergraduates to work in the unit under training placements for advanced training in bio-technology.
• Tanzanian Horticultural Association have asked EAC to develop courses on farmer training in biocontrol for commercial horticulture to be based at the new facility.

An update showing the impact of community forecasting in the fight against armyworm (May 2010).

Putting Research Into Use: Community-based armyworm forecasting in Kenya (1) Musebe R., R. Day (2)S. Kipkoech (2) F. Musavi (1) M. Kimani (3) P. Opiyo and (4) N. Hassan 1 CABI Africa, P.O. Box 633-00621, Nairobi, Kenya 2 Ministry of Agriculture, P.O. Box 14733-00800, Nairobi, Kenya 3 Pest Control Products Board, P.O. Box 13794-00800, Nairobi, Kenya 4 Russell IPM Ltd, 68, Third Avenue, Deeside Industrial Park, Deeside, Flintshire May 2011 (PDF 350KB)